Sunday, 5 April 2020

3.2 million years

Cyril Ramaphosa and his fellow travellers in the ANC have stolen 3.2 million years from the lives of ordinary South Africans that they will never get back. 21 days for 57 million people equals 3,279,452 years. Plus who knows how many billions of rand their ill-thought out plans will cost.

Perhaps a few middle-class lives will be saved from covid19. Just as a few middle-class lives will be saved from the flu, from the motor accidents, from the criminal violence that might otherwise have occurred. But this lockdown will not have worked for the vast majority of the poor living cheek-by-jowl in our townships. It will not have worked for the millions who congregated in supermarkets and pharmacies and taxis. But magically all this will be forgotten when the number of fatalities withers away, as they surely must.

Ever wondered how they persuaded all those Jews to walk into the ovens? Fear of violence, desire to live, ignorance, uncertainty, doubt. Unthinking obedience to their rulers in government. Sound familiar?

Today, 5th of April 2020, is a fascinating moment in the history of both South Africa and the world. It is a nexus. It may be a turning point for our western civilization. Let's consider where we find ourselves.

We are halfway through the South African lock down. So far there have been nine deaths and somewhat less than 2000 recorded infections. The rate of infection has been going down for the last 4 days. It looks as though the Covid19 infection rate has peaked. The 10,000 tests backlog may be hiding some real and horrific information. Possibly the number of infections will zoom up in the next two weeks. But the only really important measure will be the number of deaths directly related to the Covid19 illness. This will become clear in the course of the next two weeks.

If the number of deaths exceed the annual flu total, then we have some real cause for concern. If they don't, how will government respond? Will they say “Oops, sorry, my bad”, and attempt to carry on as if nothing had happened? Or will they bluster and fume and invoke evermore outrageous powers to cover their confusion, and save their skins. How will we as a society respond to this atrocious attack on our liberties? Probably with a meek “Oh well, at least they tried”.

If the Swedish and South Korean experiments succeed, will major western governments fall? If these experiments fail, will the West stay in lockdown for months? Will we have an economy to come back to?

I look forward to the next 2 weeks with a sort of grim delight.

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