Saturday, 4 September 2021

Consequence adjustment

 The ANC government continues to ride roughshod over the interests of the country without consequence. All their opponents in politics, in business, in churches, in civil society, wail and weep without noticeable effect. Ramaphosa and his minions are masters of realpolitik - how to prevail over all opposition, how to pull the levers of influence, how to whisper veiled threats in the right ears.


In the immortal words of Pik Botha, appeals to justice, to fairness, to common sense are “like duck’s water off their backs”. Impassioned rhetoric counts for nothing. The ANC knows how this game is played, through influence, threats, and, if necessary, mayhem. The only way to compete is to bring a gun to their knife fight. To threaten quietly but to carry a big stick. To adjust their perception of the consequences of resistance.


The fact that the honourable opposition considers such tactics abhorrent and beneath their dignity is like music to the ANC ears. The opposition is almost always right, dead right, and just as dead as if they were wrong. Justice is nice, honour is good,  but victory is its own reward.


So how do the forces of opposition in this benighted land proceed?  I have laid out an 8 step procedure to follow when dealing with an unscrupulous enemy, which I have called the Tao of Trevor, with a nod to the likes of Sun Tzu. It can be followed whenever the rule of law is no longer adequate, and the consequences of failure are disastrous..


The Tao of Trevor

8 Rules for accomplishing your objective


  1. List the principles you will not compromise. Return to this list constantly.


  1. For any new project, explicitly state your primary objective in writing, in one sentence. This is mostly for your own benefit. Then explain your objective to a 10 year old.

  2. Choose your battlefield. Under what jurisdiction will this battle be fought. The constitution? The court of public opinion? International law? Commercial law? No law?


  1. Your intentions are meaningless. They butter no parsnips.Only the actual consequences of your objective count in the real world.

  2. Identify the obstacles to your objective.
    Identify which obstacles are within your control, and which are not.
    Decide if your objective is feasible despite the obstacles you cannot control. Be brutal. Admit that you don’t know what you don’t know. Only proceed if you have a clear advantage.

  3.  Identify who has skin in this game, who are the active players. Disregard the rest.
    Rank the players in terms of their influence on your objective.
    Research how you can persuade these players to support your objective, willingly or unwillingly. 


  1. Don't bother with prayers, or appeals to reason or kindness,  don't try to assemble a majority. Identify the obstacles to your intentions and adjust their perception of the consequences of opposing you. This is how the real world works and you misunderstand it at your peril.

  2. Favour simplicity. Make no assumptions. Check everything. But don’t be fooled into believing that rational decisions can be made with quantitative measures alone, when in fact the things you can’t measure are often the most consequential.

Example 1: John Steenhuizen of the Democratic Alliance opposing the re-scheduling of local elections


Rule

Summary

Action

1

List principles

See https://www.da.org.za/why-the-da/values-and-principles. Individual freedom, rule of law, etc

2

Primary objective

Ensure that scheduled local elections take place in October 2021.
A 10 year old might ask why bother if you are just going to lose?

3

Jurisdiction

The South African Constitution

4

Intentions

From the DA website: 

To ensure democratic process in SA. 

We must take our rightful place among the great nations of the world.

To establish a fair society.

Unintended consequences: collapse of DA support, increase in Covid infections, severe rioting.

5

Identify obstacles

The IEC reports to Ramaphosa who reports to the NWC who reports to the NEC. The decision to postpone the elections will probably be taken by the NWC and conveyed to Ramaphosa and the NEC. The IEC will implement any decision handed to it.

So, the potentially controllable obstacles are the 6 members of the NWC. Almost certainly all have skeletons they would prefer not to reveal.

The NEC is not directly controllable.

The IEC can be taken to court, but the result is uncontrollable, and almost certainly negative.

6

Skin in the game

  1. Ramaphosa. His authority, legacy and control of the party are at stake.

  2. The other members of the NWC. Their power and cushy jobs.

  3. The IEC.

  4. Other political parties.

7

Adjust perceptions

I assume the DA maintains a “dirty tricks” department, like the vast majority of political parties. This department would gather incriminating evidence against senior members of other parties, with a view to influencing their behaviour. Target the 3 most susceptible members of the NWC (Possibly David Mabuza, Jesse Duarte and Gwede Mantashe). Using an arms length intermediary, make these NWC members an offer they will have difficulty refusing, to retain the October election date for the Local elections.  Stick to one issue. Don’t overreach.

If you don’t have a dirty tricks department, ask Afriforum, or Paul O’Sullivan.

8

Advantages

  1. Your objective is accomplished, and South African democratic rights are preserved.

  2. People who have abused the system are threatened with exposure.

  3. Most South Africans are eternally grateful.


Consequence adjustment

  The ANC government continues to ride roughshod over the interests of the country without consequence. All their opponents in politics, in ...