Wednesday 9 March 2022

Past tense, Future imperfect


by Trevor Watkins

In science the quality of your research and your thinking is measured by the number of hypotheses you suggest that turn out to have some basis in truth,  as revealed by the passage of time.

 As a student of the human condition I make predictions from time to time which are then measured against the revealed reality,  in the endless hope of being able to say “I told you so”,  but also to give me and my loved ones some tools for navigating a treacherous future.

In 2018 I penned an article called The future in which I laid out three possible scenarios for the next couple of years.  Having three scenarios is a good strategy since it  significantly improves your chances of being right.

Most of my predictions were about 12 to 18 months early. Remember the article was written in 2018 and 2020 seemed a long way in the future.  I have cherry-picked some of the better predictions below, while ignoring the worse ones.

Time frame



Time frame

Late 2018

The “Incident” occurs. This might be an Eskom or SAA loan default, a natural disaster, an assassination, a major riot, an epidemic

The Covid pandemic starts in China..

The KZN riots occur .

late 2019

July 2020

Early 2019

State of emergency declared by Ramaphosa.


2019 elections delayed indefinitely.






Growth rate is negative 1%. 


Unemployment reaches 50%.


May 2019 election results

ANC 55%

DA 20%

EFF 15%

State of disaster declared by Ramaphosa.


2019 elections proceed


IEC attempts to delay 2021 LG elections. Overruled by Concourt.


Growth rate 1.2% in Q4/21


Unemployment 46,6% in Q3/2021 


ANC 57.5%

DA 20.77%

EFF 10.8%

March 2020

May 2019

November 2021

December 2021

May 2019

Mid 2019

Service delivery rioting increases around country. 

Riots move from dusty townships into leafy suburbs. 

Army deployed to curb riots, but ineffective. 

Death toll in riots exceeds 1,000.

Riots in KZN

Many urban areas hit

Army deployed, but ineffective

Death toll exceeds 350

July 2020

DA becomes a liberal party.

Mmusi Maimane resigns, more liberal policies implemented by Steenhuizen.

Oct 2019

Late 2019

Ramaphosa remains president of a deeply divided country.

South Africa stumbles along with no major policy shifts and poor future prospects.

Ramaphosa remains president of a deeply divided country.

South Africa stumbles along with no major policy shifts and poor future prospects.

March 2022

So, I predicted the pandemic, the KZN riots, the state of disaster, the election results, and the re-alignment of the DA. Now for my next trick…

In the Old Testament's Book of Ezekiel, the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse are  sword, famine, wild beasts and pestilence or plague. We’ve already had sword and pestilence. Famine is coming. And the wild beast is a Black swan, or perhaps an alien.

Herewith my predictions for 2022 and beyond..






Covid declines to endemic flu status


All Covid mandates worldwide lifted.

Vaccine injuries 


Vaccine injury deaths exceed Covid deaths

Many vaccine injury court cases begin

Recriminations for Covid policies escalate


CDC/NIH  re-organised in US

WHO / SAGE / Imperial College humiliated

Many Public Health Agencies collapse/close

Fauci resigns

Ivermectin approved for worldwide use.

Moderna and Pfizer declare bankruptcy


Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire

Russian troops begin withdrawal


Without preconditions.

Remain in Donbas and Crimea

International peace conference scheduled


NATO states, Ukraine, Russia, China, UN observers

Putin deposed


Forced to retire by FSB

Russian economy craters


Starvation, destitution in Russia

Big win for US and EU construction conglomerates as Ukraine rebuilding begins.


Massive governmental aid goes to construction companies.


US inflation exceeds 10%


Debt, logistics, oil. Widespread rioting in US.

Stock exchanges drop 50% worldwide


World recession begins

Food shortages widespread in Western countries


Bill Gates stands to profit from US land purchases

Oil $200/barrel


May reduce as Russian supply returns

US politics

Biden declared medically unfit


Kamala Harris takes over as president. 

Republican have majority in House and Senate after midterms


Massive legislative programs begin to reverse Democrats policy

Republicans mount bid to impeach Biden/Harris after midterms


Could even replace president, given majority


Taiwan invasion delayed to 2024


Worldwide response to Putin aggression sends Chinese home to think again

Chinese growth rate collapses


Drops to below 3%

Widespread unrest


Internal unrest increases despite violent suppression.

External protests increase.


Canada, Australia and New Zealand governments replaced with conservatives.


Trudeau sued, exits politics. Australian and NZ state governors sued for lockdown offences.

South Africa

Cape secession referendum approved


New SA polling mechanism through Xtra card shows widespread support in WC.

World recession wreaks havoc on SA economy. Massive inflation, unemployment. 


Eskom, SOEs close to collapse. 

Sassa grants not paid


Widespread rioting

IMF loan approved


Sassa grant payments resume


Detected and confirmed


Aliens insist on speaking with Elon Musk


Woke movement collapses.


Made irrelevant by new conservative regimes

Global warming movement declines


Global recession pushes AGW to backburner.

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