by Trevor Watkins
In science the quality of your research and your thinking is measured by the number of hypotheses you suggest that turn out to have some basis in truth, as revealed by the passage of time.
As a student of the human condition I make predictions from time to time which are then measured against the revealed reality, in the endless hope of being able to say “I told you so”, but also to give me and my loved ones some tools for navigating a treacherous future.
In 2018 I penned an article called The future in which I laid out three possible scenarios for the next couple of years. Having three scenarios is a good strategy since it significantly improves your chances of being right.
Most of my predictions were about 12 to 18 months early. Remember the article was written in 2018 and 2020 seemed a long way in the future. I have cherry-picked some of the better predictions below, while ignoring the worse ones.
So, I predicted the pandemic, the KZN riots, the state of disaster, the election results, and the re-alignment of the DA. Now for my next trick…
In the Old Testament's Book of Ezekiel, the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse are sword, famine, wild beasts and pestilence or plague. We’ve already had sword and pestilence. Famine is coming. And the wild beast is a Black swan, or perhaps an alien.
Herewith my predictions for 2022 and beyond..