by Trevor Watkins
In science the quality of your research and your thinking is measured by the number of hypotheses you suggest that turn out to have some basis in truth, as revealed by the passage of time.
As a student of the human condition I make predictions from time to time which are then measured against the revealed reality, in the endless hope of being able to say “I told you so”, but also to give me and my loved ones some tools for navigating a treacherous future.
In 2018 I penned an article called The future in which I laid out three possible scenarios for the next couple of years. Having three scenarios is a good strategy since it significantly improves your chances of being right.
Most of my predictions were about 12 to 18 months early. Remember the article was written in 2018 and 2020 seemed a long way in the future. I have cherry-picked some of the better predictions below, while ignoring the worse ones.
Time frame | Prediction | Reality | Time frame |
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Late 2018 | The “Incident” occurs. This might be an Eskom or SAA loan default, a natural disaster, an assassination, a major riot, an epidemic | The Covid pandemic starts in China..
The KZN riots occur . | late 2019
July 2020 |
Early 2019 | State of emergency declared by Ramaphosa. 2019 elections delayed indefinitely. Growth rate is negative 1%. Unemployment reaches 50%. May 2019 election results ANC 55% DA 20% EFF 15% | State of disaster declared by Ramaphosa. 2019 elections proceed IEC attempts to delay 2021 LG elections. Overruled by Concourt. Growth rate 1.2% in Q4/21 Unemployment 46,6% in Q3/2021 ANC 57.5% DA 20.77% EFF 10.8% | March 2020
May 2019
November 2021
December 2021
May 2019 |
Mid 2019 | Service delivery rioting increases around country.
Riots move from dusty townships into leafy suburbs.
Army deployed to curb riots, but ineffective.
Death toll in riots exceeds 1,000. | Riots in KZN
Many urban areas hit
Army deployed, but ineffective
Death toll exceeds 350 | July 2020 |
| DA becomes a liberal party. | Mmusi Maimane resigns, more liberal policies implemented by Steenhuizen. | Oct 2019 |
Late 2019 | Ramaphosa remains president of a deeply divided country.
South Africa stumbles along with no major policy shifts and poor future prospects. | Ramaphosa remains president of a deeply divided country.
South Africa stumbles along with no major policy shifts and poor future prospects. | March 2022 |
So, I predicted the pandemic, the KZN riots, the state of disaster, the election results, and the re-alignment of the DA. Now for my next trick…
In the Old Testament's Book of Ezekiel, the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse are sword, famine, wild beasts and pestilence or plague. We’ve already had sword and pestilence. Famine is coming. And the wild beast is a Black swan, or perhaps an alien.
Herewith my predictions for 2022 and beyond..
Subject | Description | Before | Consequences |
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Covid | Covid declines to endemic flu status | Q3 | All Covid mandates worldwide lifted. |
| Vaccine injuries | Q4 | Vaccine injury deaths exceed Covid deaths
Many vaccine injury court cases begin |
| Recriminations for Covid policies escalate | Q3 | CDC/NIH re-organised in US
WHO / SAGE / Imperial College humiliated
Many Public Health Agencies collapse/close
Fauci resigns
Ivermectin approved for worldwide use.
Moderna and Pfizer declare bankruptcy |
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Ukraine | Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
Russian troops begin withdrawal | Q2 | Without preconditions.
Remain in Donbas and Crimea |
| International peace conference scheduled | Q3 | NATO states, Ukraine, Russia, China, UN observers |
| Putin deposed | Q3 | Forced to retire by FSB |
| Russian economy craters | Q4 | Starvation, destitution in Russia |
| Big win for US and EU construction conglomerates as Ukraine rebuilding begins. | Q3 | Massive governmental aid goes to construction companies. |
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Economy | US inflation exceeds 10% | Q2 | Debt, logistics, oil. Widespread rioting in US. |
| Stock exchanges drop 50% worldwide | Q3 | World recession begins |
| Food shortages widespread in Western countries | Q3 | Bill Gates stands to profit from US land purchases |
| Oil $200/barrel | Q3 | May reduce as Russian supply returns |
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US politics | Biden declared medically unfit | Q4 | Kamala Harris takes over as president. |
| Republican have majority in House and Senate after midterms | Q5 | Massive legislative programs begin to reverse Democrats policy |
| Republicans mount bid to impeach Biden/Harris after midterms | Q5 | Could even replace president, given majority |
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China | Taiwan invasion delayed to 2024 | Q3 | Worldwide response to Putin aggression sends Chinese home to think again |
| Chinese growth rate collapses | Q3 | Drops to below 3% |
| Widespread unrest | Q4 | Internal unrest increases despite violent suppression. External protests increase. |
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World | Canada, Australia and New Zealand governments replaced with conservatives. | Q4 | Trudeau sued, exits politics. Australian and NZ state governors sued for lockdown offences. |
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South Africa | Cape secession referendum approved | Q3 | New SA polling mechanism through Xtra card shows widespread support in WC. |
| World recession wreaks havoc on SA economy. Massive inflation, unemployment. | Q3 | Eskom, SOEs close to collapse. |
| Sassa grants not paid | Q3 | Widespread rioting |
| IMF loan approved | Q4 | Sassa grant payments resume |
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Aliens | Detected and confirmed | Q4 | Aliens insist on speaking with Elon Musk |
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Culture | Woke movement collapses. | Q3 | Made irrelevant by new conservative regimes |
| Global warming movement declines | Q3 | Global recession pushes AGW to backburner. |
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